BY LINCOLN ANDERSON | Hank Sheinkopf immediately knew why The Village Sun was calling on Friday.
“He can win — and he can win significantly,” he said, unprompted, right off the bat, as he answered the phone.
He was referring to Bill de Blasio, who this morning on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” declared that he has thrown his hat into the ring for the new 10th Congressional District, which includes all of Manhattan south of 14th Street.
The new two-borough district also includes the progressive Brownstone Brooklyn neighborhoods of Brooklyn Heights and Park Slope, plus Borough Park, much of which de Blasio represented in the City Council when he started out his career in elected office.
The new district lines were set to be finalized today, with the Democratic primary now pushed off two months from June 28 to Aug. 23.
Sheinkopf, a veteran Democratic political consultant, said the former mayor has several factors in his favor.
“He knows how to run for office,” he said. “He knows how to run a campaign. The district fits him. He’s got Lower Manhattan, which fits him very well. He can go to gun control and a woman’s right to choose. The Borough Park gang — he gave them everything they wanted.
“I always said, in politics do not underestimate Bill de Blasio for a minute.”
Assuming de Blasio is elected to Congress, Sheinkopf said, “He doesn’t have to run anything — all he has to do is run his mouth. It’s a perfect setup for him.”
Similarly, on the campaign trail, the consultant said, “He can talk about larger issues, liberal, global arguments that he can carry well — platitudes, which tend to work well in this kind of race. Which is perfect for him — he’s a very good speaker, very thoughtful.”
Governing, on the other hand, isn’t the main job in Congress, as Sheinkopf explained it, noting that could be good for de Blasio, since many felt it wasn’t his strength. The former mayor’s management of New York City was frequently savaged by the media and many New Yorkers. His ramming through, for example, of contentious initatiatives in the Downtown area like the East Side Coastal Resiliency project and the Soho/Noho rezoning has left open wounds — literally — including transforming much of the 50-acre East River Park into a treeless mud pit.
“The basic job is pontificating, raising money and constituent services,” Sheinkopf said of being a congressmember. “All you have to do is talk about things — you must have a tongue that wags.”
But de Blasio certainly won’t be running unopposed. State Senator Brad Hoylman, who lives in Greenwich Village, for one, has also declared he is seeking the 10th Congressional District seat. He says he wants to take his skills to the federal level to have a greater impact.
“I’m preparing to run for the new NY-10 should the lines hold,” Hoylman told The Village Sun on Friday. “This is a crisis moment in our country for reproductive health, voting rights, L.G.B.T.Q. kids and their families, climate action and gun safety. I’ve addressed many of these issues over the last decade in the New York State Senate by sponsoring, co-sponsoring and passing some of the most progressive legislation seen in Albany, including the Reproductive Health Act, GENDA, banning ghost guns, the Child Victims Act and the nation’s most extensive state law to combat climate change. But the truth is we can’t win the fight for our personal liberties, the environment and gun control without federal action. That’s why I’m running for Congress.”
Sheinkopf, though, noted that Hoylman would have to give up his state Senate seat if he runs for Congress.
“He might do well in the Brownstone Brooklyn neighborhoods,” he offered, though adding of Borough Park that “they don’t know him.”
Assemblymember Yuh-Line Niou, who has been campaigning for state Senate up until now, is also said to be eyeing the 10th District seat and is slated to make an announcement on Saturday in Chinatown.
“She would be an interesting candidate to watch,” the veteran politico said.
He added he thought Niou would have a hard time unseating Brian Kavanagh in the state Senate, noting, “You have to always give the advantage to the incumbent.”
In addition, Stuyvesant Town and Peter Cooper Village, with 3,000 residents between them, is a key voting bloc in the state Senate district, Sheinkopf noted, opining, “Who can dominate them? Kavanagh. That’s a lot of votes.”
Other names being mentioned as possible candidates for the 10th District include Councilmember Carlina Rivera and former Council Speaker Corey Johnson, according to The City.
“You gotta make him the favorite today,” Sheinkopf said of de Blasio’s chances in the 10th District, though quickly adding, “But that could change,” depending on whether other candidates enter the race.
Arthur Schwartz, a Democratic district leader representing Greenwich Village, also indicated he thinks de Blasio is a formidable candidate.
“Probably the only one who can beat him is Brad Hoylman,” he said. “There is also a chance that Assemblmember Bobby Carroll will run. He is very popular in Park Slope. His transportation agenda shows that his head is in the right place.”
As for the new 12th Congressional District, covering Manhattan north of 14th Street, where longtime Congressmembers Jerrold Nadler and Carolyn Maloney are now going to be going head to head, Sheinkopf gives Maloney the edge.
Maloney’s current East Side district includes more of the new 12th than Nadler’s West Side one does, plus Maloney is a woman, which gives her an edge, he said.
“She’s got more of the district,” Sheinkopf said. “Nadler’s predicting the West Side will turn out [to vote in large numbers]. But the West Side he’s talking about came out of the antiwar movement. It’s a West Side where he hasn’t been challenged for years. A lot of those voters have moved to Florida. To get back that district, you’d have to blow up all the [new] buildings that have been built.
“And she’s not one to ever underestimate,” Sheinkopf said of Maloney. “And she’s a woman in this environment — and a woman matters.”
Asked if he thought Nadler might have a better chance running in the 10th District, Sheinkopf said yes since there would be, as he put it, “less East Side/West Side dissension.”
De Blasio destroyed New York and everyone knows it. https://oscillations.net/2022/05/25/yes-liz-jump-in-congressional-race-and-stop-de-blasio-cold/
I’m walking with a limp these days because de Blasio set loose a vast contingent of unlicensed, uninsured (electric) motorized bicycle and scooter delivery riders. They have little or no regard for others. One of them hit me while riding on the sidewalk and looking at his handlebars-mounted smartphone. Fortunately, I jumped out of the way and “only” my knee was clipped. The guy yelled at me and kept going.
Just as he sold out the taxi industry on behalf of Uber and their campaign donations, de Blasio sold out senior citizens and other constituents on behalf of food-delivery apps and their workers — neither of which will vote for him because apps and noncitizens can’t vote.
You can bet de Blasio can’t wait to get to D.C., where there’s tons more opportunities to line his pockets.
Likewise, Carlina Rivera made a big deal out of supporting these same two-wheeled dangers to the social contract that used to allow for a reasonable expectation of safety when walking.
I’m 72 and I encourage all other seniors and pedestrians to vote for anyone but either of these flakes.
De Blasio is despised in Lower Manhattan. He sold out Chinatown, Soho, Village, LES, Seaport and FiDi residents for his developer buddies. He is hated by the middle class and is delusional if he thinks he can carry Manhattan. He didn’t fix the Dept. of Education but instead made a mess. He treated the homeless like pawns and didn’t solve the problems… He made the pandemic worse…
Must confess that I believed de Blasio back in the day when he campaigned on the “tale of two cities.” And in the beginning, appointed some experienced deputy mayors and agency commissioners and he sounded professional and competent.
And there were some good things initially, like pre-K, saving the NY Public Library from big real estate, lower increases for rent-stabilized apartments….
But things got worse.
It became clear he was a complete supporter of REBNY, some really capable deputy mayors and commissioners left, he allowed taxi drivers to be screwed, he ran for president.
And it became even worse.
NYC has completely transformed into luxury high-rises, a playground for the fabulous, rich of all ages and tourist. And the rest of us working to serve them as they dine out and get their e-commerce.
Have zero faith in de Blasio and zero faith in Hoylman — both are completely aligned with REBNY.
“[De Blasio’s] got Lower Manhattan, which fits him very well. “
Hank should be named Schisskopf instead of Scheinkopf!
De Bozo is despised Downtown. Despised.
From his phony East River resiliency plan, to his Chinatown megajail, to the SoHo/NoHo/Chinatown upzoning, to Rivington House, to his sell-off of Governors Island and upzoning of the Seaport, just to name the big ones.
Maybe this so-called “pundit” should read the Sienna poll and see how universally disliked de Bozo is: https://scri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/SNY1021-Crosstabs.pdf
Not a single demographic approved of him, except Blacks. And the 10th CD has few Blacks.
He got a disapproval majority ratings from
– Liberal, moderate or conservative Democrats.
– All the religious groups.
– Every age group
– Every income level
The only politician who did worse was Trump.
Schisskopf must have already forgotten what he said about de Bozo during his failed run for president in 2020:
“The good news is most of the people in the country don’t know him,” quipped Hank Sheinkopf, the veteran campaign strategist, when asked about Mr. de Blasio’s prospects. “The bad news is that some of them do.”
interesting and worthwhile analysis to think about. glad you posted it. thanks. hank sheinkopf
Hank Sheinkopf is a shrewd and savvy political analyst; I agree with him that de Blaz will likely win this congressional seat — largely because of his popularity in Brooklyn, his home base. The Manhattan elites loathe him but I’m guessing he’ll pick up steam with workers and owners in the restaurant industry, which he clearly saved by his Open Streets restaurant program after the pandemic hit.
Neither candidate is friends of small businesses. Both have shameful records of playing key roles in stopping any legislation giving rights to small business owners needed to survive. De Blasio, as both Public Advocate and Mayor, sold out the city’s business owners for his own political ambitions. When the Village merchants faced a crisis to survive, Holyman colluded with the real estate lobby to do fake studies and worthless recommendations. He testified to stop a vote on the Small Business Jobs Survival Act. Makes no difference who wins, they both serve big real estate in NYC.
I have lived in Soho since 1980. De Blasio sacrificed a historic district with his Noho Soho upzoning scheme to enrich his real estate cronies — a vile and unfair plan that benefits no one in this neighborhood. He should NEVER be allowed to represent this neighborhood. He is untrustworthy and drips self-interest. Hoylman understands Downtown and supports progressive interests. De Blasio is a fraud.
De Blasio was one crappy mayor but Holyman is a serious threat to freedom. He keeps proposing draconian mandatory vaccines for everyone, including little kids, not just mandatory Covid vaccines but even mandatory HPV vaccines. Holyman is either a puppet of the pharmaceutical industry or a eugenicist in liberal clothing. See links:
N.Y. politician proposes COVID vaccine mandate for school kids
https://www.nydailynews.com/coronavirus/ny-covid-vaccinations-school-kids-sen-brad-hoylman-20210824-jffnfkcukvgi3l2uxnwax3bj7i-story.html
State senator proposes mandatory HPV vaccine for school-aged children
https://www.wkbw.com/lifestyle/health/state-senator-proposes-mandatory-hpv-vaccine-for-daycare-and-school-aged-children
Don’t threaten me with a good time
Jerry Nadler is 74 years old and will be 75 on election day (6/13/47).
Carolyn Maloney is 76 (2/19/46).
Do either give a thought to the idea that maybe it is time to step aside and let a younger person pick up the fight?
“No one gives you power. You have to take it from them.” — Nancy Pelosi, who’s 82 (3/26/40)
And yes, I’d like to see young(er) folks run for office. Perhaps a municipal office might be a good level at which to start.
Please not de Blasio and Rivera.
I do not understand why Nadler doesn’t just run in the 10th, which he is permitted to do under the Constitution (he only has to reside in the state). Instead, we will end up with only one House committee chairperson (or minority leader if the House goes Republican) instead of two, and we Villagers will likely be stuck with de Blasio, who may have name recognition but is almost universally reviled. Rumor has it that Nadler and Maloney are still each trying to convince each other to run in the 10th. Jerry should just do it. If not, hopefully Hoylman, Daniel Goldman or one of the others can send BDB back to Boston.
Because they don’t care about policy or the strength of the party. Only their position in it. Iron law of institutions.